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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.